Probabilistic Modelling of Extreme Offshore Structural Response Due to Random Wave Loading

Abstract:

Offshore structures are exposed to random wave loading in the ocean environment and hence the probability distribution of the extreme values of their response to wave loading is required for their safe and economical design. This paper investigates the suitability of the Gumbel, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and the Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions for modelling of extreme responses by comparing them with empirical distributions derived from extensive Monte Carlo time simulations. It will be shown that none of these distributions can model the extreme values adequately but that a mixed distribution consisting of both GEV and GP distributions seems to be capable of modelling the extreme responses with very good accuracy.