{"id":3124,"date":"2018-02-11T01:17:58","date_gmt":"2018-02-11T01:17:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/people.utm.my\/wanfahminfaiz\/?p=3124"},"modified":"2018-02-11T01:17:58","modified_gmt":"2018-02-11T01:17:58","slug":"a-report-reveals-the-expected-damage-brexit-will-do-to-the-welsh-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/people.utm.my\/wanfahminfaiz\/a-report-reveals-the-expected-damage-brexit-will-do-to-the-welsh-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"A report reveals the expected damage Brexit will do to the Welsh economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Wales would suffer a 9.5% hit to GDP if the UK leaves the European Union without an exit deal, according to leaked figures from a UK Government analysis of the consequences of Brexit.<\/p>\n

The nation would see a 5.5% reduction in GDP even if the UK leaves with a free trade deal under this assessment \u2013 and there would still be a 1.5% blow if the country stayed in the single market.<\/p>\n

The predicted losses are understood to cover a 15-year period.<\/p>\n

The effect on jobs, businesses, livelihoods and property values of a 9.5%% drop in GDP would be immense.<\/p>\n

The leak comes as Theresa May and senior cabinet ministers meet to hammer out an agreed end-goal for the Brexit negotiations.<\/p>\n

The predicted losses are understood to cover a 15-year period.<\/p>\n

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Theresa May<\/span>\u00a0(Image: AP POOL)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The effect on jobs, businesses, livelihoods and property values of a 9.5%% drop in GDP would be immense.<\/p>\n

The leak comes as Theresa May and senior cabinet ministers meet to hammer out an agreed end-goal for the Brexit negotiations.<\/p>\n

The areas of the UK which would take the worst hit from a no-deal Brexit would be the Northeast of England (-16%) and the West Midlands (-13%).<\/p>\n

According to this analysis, there is no part of the UK that would not see a reduction in GDP under any of the three scenarios.<\/p>\n

Overall, UK GDP is expected to go down by 2% if the UK stays in the single market, by 5% if a free trade agreement is secured, and by 8% if there is no deal.<\/p>\n

The analysis suggests London would suffer the least<\/h4>\n
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Minister for health, Vaughan Gething<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The UK capital would only see its GDP go down by 1% if the country stayed in the single market; by 2% if there is a free trade deal; and by 3.5% if there is no deal.<\/p>\n

Vaughan Gething, the Welsh Government Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Services, said: \u201cThis is not remoaners or enemies of the people \u2013 this is the UK Government\u2019s own view of the damage done by a hard Brexit. Damage done to my communities that I represent.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy duty to my constituents must be to stand up against the disaster of a hard Brexit.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cardiff South and Penarth Labour MP Stephen Doughty MP said on Twitter: \u201cPeople in every corner of the United Kingdom will be shocked to see the Government\u2019s own assessment of the damage Brexit will do to their communities. It is utterly shameful that people all across this country are having to rely on leaks to find out how much damage a hard, destructive Brexit will do to their local economies and the country as a whole.\u201d<\/p>\n

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How a no-deal Brexit could hit GDP<\/h3>\n
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-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-20% Reduction in GDPJS chart by amCharts<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
North East: -16West Midlands: -13Northern Ireland: -12North West: -12Wales: -9.5Scotland: -9East Midland: -8.5Eastern: -8South East: -7.5Yorks and Humber: -7South West: -5London: -3.5<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Mr Doughty, who is a leading supporter of Open Britain campaign which favours close links with the EU, called for the full publication of the UK Government\u2019s research, saying: \u201cThe Government cannot continue to try and hide taxpayer funded analysis from the public, just because they\u2019re afraid of the political consequences. The full Brexit impact assessments, along with any other economic analysis of Brexit outcomes, must be published in full, now.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd as people learn new facts about the costs of Brexit for their communities and their industries, everyone is entitled to keep an open mind about whether or not it\u2019s the right path for the country.\u201d<\/p>\n

Swansea West Labour MP Geraint Davies said: \u201cWales has been hard hit by austerity \u2013 with public sector pay freezes, cuts in services and a benefit squeeze on the most vulnerable. Now Brexit, with reduced trade and us paying for the EU Divorce Bill, means vital infrastructure projects in South Wales like rail electrification and the Swansea Tidal Lagoon are being cut…<\/p>\n

\u201cThese ground-breaking leaked documents show that the government know the true cost of Brexit, but have tried to keep us in the dark.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, DUP Brexit supporting MP Ian Paisley said the predictions were as “reliable as astrology”.<\/p>\n

Plaid Cymru’s response: Keep Wales in the single market<\/h4>\n

Plaid Cymru Brexit spokesman Hywel Williams said: \u201cThese sobering statistics lay bare the devastating impact a hard Brexit would have on our economy. Just as Plaid Cymru has argued all along, remaining in the single market would be the most favourable option if we are to defend Welsh jobs and industries.<\/p>\n

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(Image: PA)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cYet again, Wales is set to be worse off than the UK as a whole as a result of disastrous decisions taken by the Tories and unopposed by Labour in Westminster. Members of all parties should be uniting in the national interest to present the resounding case for Wales to remain in the single market and customs union.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mid and West Wales Plaid AM Simon Thomas said the figures showed Wales would be \u201cshafted under any realistic scenario\u201d.<\/p>\n

Lib Dems say this is a ‘damning outlook for Britain’<\/h4>\n
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Liz Saville Roberts and Hywel Williams both voted against triggering Brexit<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake said: \u201cThis is a damning outlook for Britain. The Tories are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the UK.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Government need to start being clear what they are fighting for. They are still keeping no deal on the table despite how crippling it would be to the regional economy.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople did not vote to make themselves poorer. They should be allowed a vote on the final deal and a chance to exit from Brexit.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Welsh Government response:<\/h4>\n

A Welsh Government spokesperson said: \u201cOur Brexit trade paper, supported by a Cardiff Business School impact study, shows the Welsh economy is best protected by retaining full and unfettered access to the European Single Market and membership of a customs union.<\/p>\n

“This report suggests UK Government research confirms our analysis that a hard Brexit would have a catastrophic impact on Welsh jobs and the economy; reducing the economy by 8 \u2013 10%, which is the equivalent of between \u00a31,500 and \u00a32,000 per person in Wales.<\/p>\n

“We have tried wherever possible to base our Brexit policies on evidence and to publish the evidence we have. We call on the UK Government to do likewise. We do not believe the UK Government has any sound economic evidence to support its policy choices as to the sort of Brexit it is pursuing.”<\/p>\n

Here is how the UK’s GDP is predicted to be hit by Brexit<\/strong><\/p>\n

East Midlands:<\/h4>\n