New Construction Spending Not Keeping Pace With Inventory Demand

When real estate agents across the country gather to complain about the things making their lives difficult, one of the top gripes in 2016 has to be “inventory.” Where is the supply to meet buyer demand?

This month, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that new private residential construction spending in May was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $451.9 billion.

This is very close to the revised April 2016 estimate of $451.7 billion, and above the May 2015 estimate of $359.5 billion, showing signs of recent stagnation despite an overall upward trend year-over-year.

Earlier this year, Inman columnist Lou Barnes noted that it takes awhile to “get the engine going” on new housing — “labor, land and materials” don’t just magically appear. However, we’re now seven years out from the recession’s end, and inventory growth remains stalled. Spending on new single-family housing specifically was estimated at 239.2 billion in May, down 1.3 percent from 242.3 billion the previous month. However, this is up 6 percent from single-family spending a year prior (225.0 billion). The Census Bureau’s construction spending estimates are based on the “Value of Construction Put In Place Survey,” which provides monthly estimates of the total dollar value of construction work done in the U.S. The survey includes construction done each month on new structures and improvements to existing structures for both the private and public sectors; these numbers are private residential construction estimates.

The estimates include the cost of:

Labor
Materials
Architectural work
Engineering work
Overhead costs
Interest paid during construction
Taxes paid during construction
Contractors’ profits
According to the Census Bureau, “data collection and estimation activities begin on the first day after the reference month and continue for about three weeks. Reported data and estimates are for activity taking place during the previous calendar month.”

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Be A Contrarion Investor. Buy When Others Are Selling And Sell When They Are Buying.


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Fewer Home Sales Are In The Pipeline- Here’s Why


The home-buying frenzy that has swept the nation, leading to bidding wars and offers well above asking price, seems to be tapering off a bit as a result of the dearth of affordable properties on the market.

Pending home sales, which are purchases that haven’t closed yet, fell 3.7% in May from April, according to a recent report by the National Association of Realtors®. They also slid another 0.2% from May of 2015. The report counted only existing homes and not newly constructed residences. “People are buying homes as long as there are homes on the market” to buy, says Javier Vivas, an economic researcher at realtor.com. But “the current levels of home supply are simply not enough to quench demand.”
Another reason that pending sales were slower in May is that they hit their highest level in a decade just a month earlier in April. “Now we’re just seeing [pending sales] coming down to normal levels in May,” Vivas says.
The home-buying frenzy that has swept the nation, leading to bidding wars and offers well above asking price, seems to be tapering off a bit as a result of the dearth of affordable properties on the market.

Pending home sales, which are purchases that haven’t closed yet, fell 3.7% in May from April, according to a recent report by the National Association of Realtors®. They also slid another 0.2% from May of 2015. The report counted only existing homes and not newly constructed residences. “People are buying homes as long as there are homes on the market” to buy, says Javier Vivas, an economic researcher at realtor.com. But “the current levels of home supply are simply not enough to quench demand.” Another reason that pending sales were slower in May is that they hit their highest level in a decade just a month earlier in April.
“Now we’re just seeing [pending sales] coming down to normal levels in May,” Vivas says.

Despite the slip, NAR predicts existing home sales will hit about 5.4 million by the end of 2016, a 3.7% rise from 2015. Prices are expected to be up between 4% and 5% over last year. **Continued in comments below👇👇**
realestate_iq**Continued 👉👉** The impact of Brexit could lead to more buyers to enter the market to take advantage of lower mortgage rates, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. On the other hand, potential buyers might choose to wait on the sidelines longer if the turmoil in the financial markets continues as a result of U.K. residents voting to leave the European Union, he added.

Monthly pending sales dipped in every region of the country in May. “There are simply not enough homes coming onto the market to catch up with demand and to keep prices more in line with inflation and wage growth,” Yun said.

In the Midwest, yet-to-be-closed purchases dropped 4.2% from April to May, according to the report. There were also 1.8% fewer than a year ago. In the West, they were down 3.4% from April and 0.1% from the same time a year ago.

In the Northeast, pending sales were down 5.3% from April. However, they were about the same as a year ago.

The only (slightly) bright spot was the South. Pending sales still slid 3.1% from April. But they were up 0.6% from May of 2015.

For example, sales were up in Charlotte, NC, says local real estate broker Wanda Holsclaw of Re/Max Executive Realty. “It’s multiple offers,” she says. “It’s really tough for home buyers under the $200,000 price range, because it’s so competitive.” The region is seeing an influx of people moving in from other parts of the country, due to jobs moving down to the cheaper, warmer area. And builders are putting up new residences as fast as they can. “It’s more affordable,” she says of the area. “You get more home for your money, taxes are lower.”

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Hard Money: What Is It And How Do Hard Money Loans Work?


Hard money lenders (HMLs) are typically private individuals or small groups that lend money (Hard money) based on the property you are buying, and not on your credit score. Usually these loans cost (percentage-wise) much more then an average mortgage, often times up to twice what a regular mortgage does, plus high origination fees.

Who Needs Hard Money

Developers and house flippers, amongst others, will use it to fund deals because you can often borrow up to 100% of your purchase price! On the other hand, hard money lenders will frequently require you to back up your loan with real assets. If you know you can buy a property and turn it quickly at huge profit, and you can’t get a standard mortgage, it might be one way to go. Some investors use hard money to get into the property, do some quick fixes to raise the property value, then get a new loan (based on the property’s new, improved value) from a bank to pay off the hard money lender.In Other Words . . .

Hard money loans are easily accessed and cut through the red tape. If you can develop a relationship with a LOCAL hard money lender, you can get funds within a couple days, and sometimes with no appraisal or other costs (except for origination fees of course). Now different HML’s have different requirements and protocol. There is a local HML that only charges 12% interest and 1 point origination if you keep it over a year and 2 more points if you keep it less than a year. He only does 30 year notes, and obviously he wants you to keep it. He has over 1100 notes, so he doesn’t want the hassle. He wants his money to stay loaned out. I have also worked with another local HML who doesn’t charge any points, but he’s extremely fickle and can be hard to work with.

Now the typical HML will charge somewhere right around the usury rate. In Texas its 18% annual, so most HML’s will charge 5% origination and 13% interest on a 1 year note or no points upfront and 18% interest with a shorter call. Now they can get around usuary by shifting their origination fee into a commitment fee (little different protocol), but most HML’s don’t know this.

The beauty of HML’s is that the loan is normally not based on your credit score (especially with local lenders) or at least not on your credit worthiness (assets and income), you can receive funding within a matter of days (normally about 7-14 days) rather than 30 days+, and you can get a loan on any piece of junk that you find. You also are not normally dealing with a processing team. You deal directly with an individual lender. If he or she says yes, then you have the loan. This is quite advantageous versus going through an entire loan committee process or underwriting process.

HML’s on longer term investments are not a good idea, but for short term flips, rehabs, or for the initial purchase, they can be a very strong tool. I started my investing using HML’s, and have made very good money using them. I now use mostly a line of credit from the bank, but it took me several years to work into that. I also now do some local hard money loans to other investors.

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Why Brexit Is Great News For U.S. Homebuyers


It’s now even cheaper to get a mortgage.
The average rate of a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 3.48% — the lowest level since May 2013, according to Freddie Mac. A year ago, the rate was 4.08%.
The drop comes in the wake of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union. The historic vote sent the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury, which serves as benchmark for consumer loans, tumbling to 1.45% this week.
The rate on the 15-year fixed mortgage also dropped to 2.78% from 2.83% last week.

“Obviously it’s a good time for anyone who is the market for a home purchase or had been on the proverbial fence about refinancing,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.

The U.K.’s decision to separate from the European Union on Friday triggered a massive selloff that erased a record $3 trillion from the global stock market on Friday and Monday.

Some experts expect the fallout from the vote to be a boon for the U.S. real estate market as more foreign buyers seek out a safe haven to park their cash.
The drop in home loan rates can provide some breathing room for wanna-be buyers in the U.S. who have been facing rising home prices and tighter lending requirements.Low inventory and high demand have pushed up home prices throughout the country, creating an affordability issue.

Home prices increased 5% in April from the year prior, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index released earlier this week.
“When you are seeing this continuous 5% increase year over year in home prices without an accompanying increase in either wages or incomes, what can’t go on forever does not,” Hamrick noted.

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Statistic Tutorials For SPSS and Stata- Extremely Easy To Follow And Understand

Hi there! Just wanted to share one of my reference sources for analysing data using SPSS and Stata during my PhD years.
I found this website highly useful as it shows a step-by-step procedure in carrying out statistical analysis (Very helpful for beginners).
Plus, the explanation is also very easy to understand.
Below are the list of the statistical tests for SPSS and Stata respectively.

Statistical Tests Guide For SPSS:

Statistics Laerd- SPSS

Statistical Tests Guide For Stata:

Statistics Laerd- Stata

By the way, this service requires renewal of membership for either one, three or six months.
I would advice you to try the one month version first. If you are satisfied, you can always extend your membership to three or six months.

Interested?
Follow this link to get started: Statistics Laerd

All the best!!! 🙂

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As An Investor With Capital To Employ, You Should Strike With Surgical Precision


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Pending Home Sales Down 3.7%, Marking First Annual Drop In Two Years


The final push of the spring housing season turned out weaker than expected. Signed contracts to buy existing homes fell 3.7 percent in May compared to April, according to the National Association of Realtors.

April’s reading was revised down. These so-called pending home sales were 0.2 percent lower than May of 2015, the first annual drop since August of 2014. “With demand holding firm this spring and homes selling even faster than a year ago, the notable increase in closings in recent months took a dent out of what was available for sale in May and ultimately dragged down contract activity,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors. “Realtors are acknowledging with increasing frequency lately that buyers continue to be frustrated by the tense competition and lack of affordable homes for sale in their market.” That competition has pushed home prices higher faster than expected and far faster than income growth. Prices have reached new peaks in seven major metropolitan markets (Denver, Dallas, Portland Oregon, San Francisco, Seattle, Charlotte, and Boston), according to the latest report from S&P/Case-Shiller. Homes are also spending far less time on the market, averaging just 30 days in May, compared to 40 days a year ago.

Mortgage rates have remained very low, but applications for a mortgage to purchase a home are down 5 percent in the past month, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Rates fell further this week, in the wake of the Brexit vote, which increased affordability for buyers again, but without homes to buy, the low rates have less of an impact. “In the short term, volatility in the financial markets could very likely lead to even lower mortgage rates and increased demand from foreign buyers looking for a safer place to invest their cash,” added Yun. “On the other hand, any prolonged market angst and further economic uncertainty overseas could negatively impact our economy and end up tempering the overall appetite for home buying.” Regionally, pending home sales in the Northeast dropped 5.3 percent for the month and are now unchanged from a year ago.

In the Midwest sales slipped 4.2 percent in May, and are 1.8 percent below May 2015. Sales in the South declined 3.1 percent for the month but are 0.6 percent higher than last May. The West saw a 3.4 percent monthly drop, and sales are 0.1 percent below a year ago.

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Cabaran Perumahan Mampu Milik

Cabaran Perumahan Mampu Milik

PERUMAHAN adalah agen­da pembangunan utama se­buah negara termasuklah Malaysia. Agenda dan pem­bangunan perumahan dan pemilikan rumah dan harta tanah sentiasa menjadi isu utama dalam perbincangan geopolitik. Kajian yang dibuat oleh Institut Sultan Iskandar (ISI) Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) bersama Kumpulan Penyelidik Survei (SRG UTM) menunjukkan tahap persepsi dan kepuasan rakyat terhadap pencapaian perumahan masih perlu ditingkatkan bukan sahaja dari segi bilangan tetapi juga boleh milik.

Keadaan yang sama juga di­kenal pasti dalam kajian oleh Institut Penyelidikan Khazanah (KRI) apabila aspek bekalan perumahan juga didapati tidak bersesuaian dengan kumpulan sasar yang berpendapatan sederhana dan rendah. Kajian ISI UTM bersama Pusat Kajian Harta Tanah (CRES UTM) berhubung kemampuan bumiputera memiliki harta tanah di Johor menunjukkan perlunya isu bekalan dan kemampuan memiliki rumah ini dijadikan agenda serius bagi mencapai sasaran kerajaan.

Jadi apakah kemampuan membeli rumah berdasarkan golong­an sasaran? Mengapakah pula banyak pembinaan perumahan di sekitar kita? Siapakah yang sebenarnya membelinya? Adakah ia habis dijual? Persoalan ini sen­tiasa bermain di fikiran ramai yang akhirnya terpacul sindiran ‘rumah mampu tengok!’

Di Malaysia, Dasar Perumahan Negara menjadi garis panduan hala tuju perancangan dan pembangunan perumahan. Perumah­an yang disediakan perlulah bersesuaian dengan kemampuan, selesa dan mencapai kualiti yang ditetapkan. Kerajaan Negeri Johor memperkenalkan Dasar Perumahan Rakyat Johor pada 2012 bagi membantu menyegerakan pencapaian rumah mampu milik. Ia digunakan untuk memastikan pihak pemaju memberi keutamaan kepada pembangunan rumah mampu milik di Johor.

Dasar ini juga menetapkan 40% rumah mampu milik bagi setiap skim perumahan dalam wilayah Iskandar Malaysia dengan harga tidak melebihi RM150,000. Walaupun mempunyai dasar perumahan di peringkat negara dan negeri, cabaran utama masa kini adalah pencapaian sasaran terutama penyediaan rumah mampu milik yang mesra keluarga, selesa dan bertepatan dengan pendapatan isi rumah. Difahamkan hanya sekitar 20% sahaja perumahan baru menyediakan rumah berharga RM250,000! Jadi adakah kita mampu?

Secara umumnya definisi perumahan mampu milik adalah rumah yang mampu dimiliki atau dibeli oleh rakyat biasa yang termasuk dalam golongan sasaran iaitu kebolehan isi rumah berpendapatan sederhana mengikut ­piawaian yang ditentukan. Kaedah utama yang biasa digunakan sebagai piawaian adalah dengan merujuk kepada pendapatan isi rumah.

Kaedah pertama adalah dengan melihat jumlah pendapatan tahunan isi rumah di mana dianggarkan mereka mampu memiliki atau membeli jika harga rumah tidak melebihi tiga kali ganda pendapatan tahunan mereka. Kaedah ke­dua adalah dengan melihat kemam­puan membiayai atau mengagihkan 30 peratus gaji bulanan isi rumah bagi tujuan ansuran perumahan. Malangnya, mengikut kajian KRI, harga rumah pada masa ini kebanyakannya melebihi empat kali ganda pendapatan tahunan isi rumah. Contohnya, jika pendapatan isi rumah adalah RM5,000 sebulan yang mana jumlah pendapatan tahunan RM60,000 harga rumah yang mampu dimiliki di pasaran perlulah tidak melebihi RM180,000 sahaja. Kebanyakan harga pasaran rumah sekarang adalah melebihi RM240,000 yang menunjukkan ketidakmampuan untuk membelinya.

Secara umumnya harga rumah bergantung kepada beberapa faktor. Pertama adalah kos pembinaan rumah tersebut di atas tanah tertentu. Terdapat komponen harga tanah yang dipengaruhi lokasi dan keadaan tanah, infrastruktur umum terbabit, pembinaan struktur asas bangunan, kemasan bangunan, dan aspek perundangan. Kedua adalah lokasi tapak cadangan perumahan.

Tapak tanah di bandar adalah terhad dan mahal harganya yang menyebabkan pemaju membina rumah mewah seperti membina kondominium yang mempunyai densiti yang lebih tinggi dalam kawasan tanah yang terhad. Harga tanah amat sukar dikawal dan kita dapat melihat kenaikan harga setiap tahun. Pembinaan rumah kos tinggi tidak mampu dibeli golongan sasaran yang menunggu rumah mampu milik yang mungkin tidak dilaksanakan oleh pemaju kerana tidak memberikan pulangan yang tinggi.

Selain itu, aspek pembayaran fi, proses pembangunan dan perundangan jual beli juga melibatkan kos. Kos ini mungkin boleh diberikan perhatian oleh pihak pemaju dan kerajaan supaya tidak membebankan. Kos rumah juga bergantung kepada keadaan ekonomi semasa. Jika tahap inflasi tinggi harga rumah selalunya naik untuk bertahan lama di pasaran dengan pembelian yang berkurangan. Di samping itu, aspek pembelian untuk pelaburan harta juga akan menaikkan permintaan yang secara tidak langsung menaikkan harga pasaran.

Kawalan harga boleh dilakukan oleh pihak berwajib dengan mengawal harga bahan binaan dan juga pengurangan cukai bahan itu. Pada masa sama pengawalan harga rumah boleh ditentukan dengan benar-benar mengkaji keperluan dan keupayaan membeli mengikut kawasan yang ditentukan. Subsidi dan insentif tertentu juga boleh difikirkan bagi menambah minat pemaju swasta untuk turut serta dalam pembangunan perumahan mampu milik ini.

Kemudahan pinjaman yang mempunyai keperluan bukti pendapatan perlu dilihat semula memandangkan ramai dalam kalangan golongan sasaran ini adalah bekerja sendiri dan tidak dapat membuktikan yang mereka dapat membayar semula pembiayaan dan pinjaman mereka dengan pihak bank.

Jika kita tidak mampu membeli rumah, adakah perlu kita teruskan hajat kita? Perlukah kita membebankan golongan muda membuat pinjaman untuk membeli rumah dan terpaksa membiayai pinjaman perumahan yang panjang? ­Bolehkah masyarakat kita me­nerima kaedah perumahan menyewa seperti di negara maju? Apa yang penting memastikan rakyat terutamanya golongan berpendapatan rendah mendapat kemudahan perumahan. Perumahan membawa kepada kesejahteraan rakyat.

PROF. DR. MOHD. HAMDAN AHMAD ialah Pengarah Eksekutif Institut Sultan Iskandar Habitat Bandar dan Kelestarian Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.

Link to source: http://www.utusan.com.my/rencana/cabaran-perumahan-mampu-milik-1.373549

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When You Approach Any Deal, Before You Put An Offer In, You Must Have 3 Strategies In Place: 1) Entry 2) Post-Entry 3) Exit


Know how you’re going to enter the deal, what you’re going to do once you’re in the deal, and how you’re going to exit the deal all before entering the deal.

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