Think about your desktop computer, your flat-screen TV, or your smart phone.
At first, they seemed like a novelty. A few years later, everyone had them.
Think about your desktop computer, your flat-screen TV, or your smart phone.
At first, they seemed like a novelty. A few years later, everyone had them.
Will electric vehicles be next?
The question is hotly debated among car manufacturers, lawmakers, scholars, and electric vehicle (EV) aficionados. But with so many factors influencing car buyers’ decisions it’s not an easy one to answer.
Until recently, Georgia was poised to lead the way on EV adoption as one of the top states in the country for sales. However, advocates for the technology believe Georgia has been moving backward since last July, when a new law (House Bill 170) took effect that revoked a state tax credit of up to $5,000 and imposed a $200 annual registration fee. Since then, sales of electric vehicles have plummeted.
A loose coalition of Georgia utility providers, fuel station builders, EV advocates, waste and logistics industries and automobile manufacturers is currently lobbying for the creation of a legislative study committee to examine the financial impact eliminating the tax credit has had.
“I definitely think there is a role for the state to be involved,” said State Rep. Don Parsons, R-Marietta, who chairs the House Energy, Utilities and Telecommunications Committee and supported HB 170. “The question is how much do you do? What do you do? And how do you impact the people who may never use these vehicles?”
January 26, 2016 Decatur – Don Francis, executive director of Clean Cities Georgia, charges his electric vehicle using DC Fast Charging station at Agnes Scott College electric vehicle charging station on Tuesday, January 26, 2016. DC fast charging provides a rapid recharge of battery electric vehicles, generally in less than 30 minutes. Interest in the factors that influence the adoption of electric vehicle technology has grown in Georgia following the Legislature’s decision to eliminate a $5,000 tax credit and impose a $200 per year registration fees. EV sales have plummeted 90 percent since last June, when the law took effect. HYOSUB SHIN / HSHIN@AJC.COM
Gas v. electric vehicles
Incentives and fees aren’t the only factors influencing mainstream adoptions of electric vehicles.
A global glut of oil supplies caused average gas prices in the U.S. last week to drop to their lowest level in more than 12 years. The result: electric car sales have slowed, while purchases of sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks have risen.
Elon Musk, the CEO of electric car maker Tesla, said this week on CNN that the EV industry will likely suffer, at least until gas prices rise again.
Another big factor is the sale price of the vehicle, and the ongoing maintenance costs.
The battery life on an electric vehicle is limited and can cost more than $13,000 to replace. But improvements in battery technology are likely to extend battery life significantly in coming years. At the same time, electric vehicles don’t require periodic maintenance like oil changes and don’t have components that can break down on gasoline-fueled cars like transmissions and fuel pumps.
Stanford University Professor Tony Seba believes improvements in batteries will be the catalyst for the changeover to electric vehicles by bringing down ownership costs. He predicts that by 2026, all new cars sold in America will be electric vehicles.
Seba, who studies disruptive technologies, spoke earlier this month at an annual State of MARTA breakfast about electric and self-driving vehicles.
He said companies are investing heavily in the development of cheaper lithium batteries and building mega-factories to ramp up production. These new batteries will be more powerful and increase the range of electric vehicles (which can be 80 to 100 miles for a Nissan Leaf) to more than 200 miles on a single charge.
Right now only luxury auto maker Tesla can offer that kind of range, at a premium price upwards of $71,000. But by 2017 or so, more affordable car manufacturers including GM and Nissan will begin offering these higher-range vehicles, Seba said. Tesla also intends to introduce a car that can travel 600 miles on a charge by 2017.
The median car price in the U.S. today is $31,000.
Electric vehicles tend to be higher-priced than similar gas-powered models. But when EVs drop below a retail price of between $35,000 and $45,000, “then, no gas car above that price will be worth it,” Seba said, because the new breed of electric vehicles will cost only one-tenth of what it costs to fuel and maintain gasoline-powered cars.
Professor Jeremy J. Michalek, who leads the vehicle electrification group at Carnegie Mellon University, thinks a 10-year time frame for going all-electric is too optimistic. Even when all new car sales are electric, it will take decades more for the entire fleet to turn over.
Michalek points out that foreign policies, technology improvements, fluctuating oil prices and other factors will influence EV adoption.
“It is certainly possible electrics will disrupt and take over gasoline,” he said. “But it’s also possible that they won’t.”
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