Utilising GIS for Heat Wave Management: Mapping, Modelling, Analysis, and Prediction

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By Shahabuddin Amerudin

Heat waves pose a growing threat to society, necessitating effective management strategies. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) offer a range of technical tools, techniques, and methods to handle and mitigate the impacts of heat waves. By leveraging GIS capabilities such as mapping, modeling, analysis, and prediction, we can enhance our understanding of heat waves and implement targeted strategies to protect vulnerable populations, optimize urban planning, and foster climate resilience. This article explores the technical applications of GIS in heat wave management.

Mapping Heat Vulnerability

GIS enables the integration of diverse spatial data layers to map and visualize heat vulnerability. For instance, overlaying demographic data (e.g., age, income, health conditions) with land cover, surface temperature, and urban heat island data allows for the creation of heat vulnerability maps. Tools such as ArcGIS (Esri, Redlands, CA, USA) and QGIS (QGIS Development Team) facilitate the analysis and visualization of this data, aiding policymakers and emergency responders in identifying high-risk areas during heat waves (Cutter et al., 2003; Flanagan et al., 2011).

Modelling Heat Waves

GIS-based modeling allows for the simulation and analysis of heat wave scenarios. Advanced models like ENVI-met (Bruse GmbH) and SOLWEIG (University of Gothenburg) utilize climate data, land surface characteristics, and topographical information to simulate the spatial distribution of heat intensity (Krayenhoff et al., 2020). These models generate heat maps and identify hotspots within urban areas, helping planners assess the effectiveness of mitigation strategies like green infrastructure, cool roofs, and urban design modifications (Bowler et al., 2010; Mills et al., 2021).

Analysing Heat Wave Impacts

GIS enables in-depth analysis of heat wave impacts across various sectors. Through spatial analysis techniques such as overlay analysis, proximity analysis, and network analysis, GIS tools help identify critical infrastructure at risk of failure during heat waves. By integrating data on transportation networks, healthcare facilities, and population density, GIS can inform decisions on emergency response planning, infrastructure upgrades, and resource allocation (Stone Jr et al., 2010; Kim et al., 2022).

Predicting Heat Waves

GIS-based predictive modeling supports the forecasting of heat wave events. By integrating historical climate data, atmospheric conditions, and climate change projections, models like MaxEnt (Phillips et al., 2006) and Random Forest (Breiman, 2001) can estimate the likelihood, intensity, and duration of future heat waves. These models enable the development of early warning systems, empowering decision-makers, emergency services, and the public to take proactive measures to reduce heat wave impacts (Zhang et al., 2019).

Enhancing Urban Planning

GIS plays a crucial role in urban planning for heat wave resilience. Using tools like CityEngine (Esri) and Urban Heat Island (UHI) modeling, GIS integrates heat vulnerability maps, land use data, and urban design principles. This integration assists in identifying suitable locations for green spaces, cool corridors, and water features to mitigate the urban heat island effect. GIS also optimizes the placement of cooling centers, public transportation routes, and shaded areas, ensuring equitable access to relief during heat wave events (Bowler et al., 2010; Cao et al., 2020).

Conclusion

By harnessing the power of GIS, we can effectively manage and mitigate the impacts of heat waves. Through mapping heat vulnerability, modeling scenarios, analyzing impacts, predicting future events, and enhancing urban planning, GIS provides technical solutions for evidence-based decision-making. Tools such as ArcGIS, QGIS, ENVI-met, and MaxEnt facilitate the implementation of these strategies. The integration of GIS with advanced modeling techniques and spatial analysis allows for a comprehensive understanding of heat wave patterns, vulnerabilities, and impacts. This knowledge can inform policymakers, urban planners, and emergency management agencies in developing short and long-term solutions to address the challenges posed by heat waves.

To further enhance the technical capabilities of GIS in heat wave management, ongoing research and collaboration are crucial. Researchers are continuously developing new tools and methodologies to improve heat wave prediction accuracy and enhance the spatial analysis capabilities of GIS. Furthermore, interdisciplinary collaborations between climatologists, urban planners, epidemiologists, and GIS specialists can provide a holistic approach to understanding heat wave dynamics and their implications on public health, infrastructure, and the environment.

References

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Suggestion for Citation:
Amerudin, S. (2023). Utilising GIS for Heat Wave Management: Mapping, Modelling, Analysis, and Prediction. [Online] Available at: https://people.utm.my/shahabuddin/?p=6445 (Accessed: 7 June 2023).

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